Friday, June 17, 2011

Fairy Tale Fryday- Internet IPO's Are The Soup Du Jour As LinkedIn and Pandora Down Almost 50% Since IPO; Facebook Wants To Be Worth $1 Trillion; Check and Compare This; Greece Accomplishes Nothing With Shuffle; Even Greenspan Joins The Wagon; Wall Street TBTF Issues Big Layoffs; Fukushima Updates; Infant Mortality Rate in Philadelphia Jumps 48% Since Iodine Detected In Drinking Water; Three More Earless Rabbits Born; Hot Spots Are Found 140 South of Fukushima; Much More

Update 1: Ft. Calhoun Nuclear Power Plant reporting another "event." Nothing to see here - three explosions at Fukushima were also just "events."

Main Article
Once upon a time, in a far away land, there was an internet IPO - and it made all the insiders disgustingly wealthy. The End.

All jesting aside, that was the whole story. Any investor worth his weight in gold (at current spot prices, the average man is worth $4,588,000 in gold) remembers exactly where he was when the internet bubble popped. It's been over ten years since that implosion and it looks as if nobody has learned anything - well, ok - except for the bookies underwriters, a.k.a TBTF banks, who have mastered the art of sales.

We began today's article with a "fairy tale" introduction because we felt it was so apropos that so many retail suckers investors and momentum hunters, looking to get in early on a "hot" stock, were sold a fairy tale - happy ending and all - only to wake up and discover it was nothing more than a story. Well, it sounded nice. We can't help but think about the stereotypical used car salesman who talks up a real junker with a shiny coat of paint to the misguided and naive grandmother. He says to her, "Oh, it says 250,000 miles on the odometer but believe me, it's been driven like there's only 25,000 miles. She's got tons of life in her! But if you don't buy it now, I promised another person who offered to pay more they can have her." And so the story goes. There's a sucker born every minute.

We can't help but ponder how Goldman Sachs, the master used car salesman of the investment world, is going to talk up the quasi junk heap next internet IPO called Facebook. After all, insiders are really pushing to make Facebook's IPO worth $1 Trillion(!) and that's why Goldman pulled the plug on Facebook's $50 Billion valuation - it wasn't enough. We won't even bother going into the math involved at attaining $1 Trillion, but here are some statistics on the most recent disaster internet IPO that should make you do a double take.

On the first day of trading, LinkedIn's hyped up IPO went from $45 (for insiders and institutional banksters) to $121.90. That gave LNKD a market crap cap of $10 Billion, a P/E ratio of nearly 1800x earnings and a P/S of 40x. For arguments sake, let's plug those numbers into other well known and successfully traded companies that actually produce revenues.

Using LNKD's P/E ratio on it's opening day-

Apple would be worth $34.1 Trillion.  
Ford would be worth $12.6 Trillion. 
ExxonMobil would be worth $62.6 Trillion. 
AT&T would be worth $36.1 Trillion. 
Even General Motors would be trading at $12.1 Trillion.

For perspective, the GDP of the entire global economy is $58 Trillion.

Now using the P/S ratio:

Apple would be worth $3.5 Trillion. 
Ford would be worth $5.2 Trillion. 
ExxonMobil would be worth $14.56 Trillion. 
AT&T would be worth $5.1 Trillion. 
Even General Motors would be worth $5.6 Trillion.

Now, before some of you (the 1% that voted there is no Great Depression coming) get your panties in a twist over these outrageous and comical valuations and send rude emails that this is not the way to value a stock - yes, we know - this is simply an example of, shall we say, "irrational exuberance." In other words, don't buy the hype - due diligence can save you a lot of misery.

It should be noted, LinkedIn is now trading at $66.50, a 46% drop from the irrationally exuberant price. Pandora is now trading at $12.70, a 52% drop from its peak. For what it's worth, Pandora doesn't expect to turn a profit ever before the end of 2012, but they thank the investors in advance. Additionally, insiders of both companies feel very comfortable with their stock price.

That being said, the only way Facebook will ever see a $1 Trillion valuation is if the master used car salesman can pull in enough suckers we experience Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation. Then, Facebook can have the bragging rights of being the first $100 Quadrillion company. Of course, we're not giving any investment advice whatsoever, but as always, we recommend you do your own due diligence and invest wisely. Retail investors can win if they play their cards right.

Speaking of due diligence, Greek drama continues as a full gov't reshuffle takes place - and accomplishes absolutely nothing. Even Greek CDS spreads are unchanged from yesterday's high of 2040 while the Greek 10yr bond is yielding a utterly unsustainable 17.81%. Portugal, on the other hand, isn't fairing much better and is following exactly in the same steps as it's brother Greece was - 10yr bonds are at 10.91% and rising sharply. Spain remains at 5.63% on the 10yr but that too will soon rise.

As this article from ZeroHedge is entitled, "Greek Math: €12 Billion In, €18.2 Billion Out... And That's IF The Impossible Happens," you can see why the impossible won't happen. And sorry G Pap, it won't even happen in 2013 either.

Of course, Greece's fate is very important to the continuation of the global financial system. Even Greenspan says so, "so it's gotta be true!" Actually Greenspan says that a Greek default could trigger a recession in the U.S. of A. Could you imagine that? With his comment on the possibility of a recession in the U.S., we can conclude that he still didn't get the memo - we're well past recession and heading in a depression. Then again, neither did Dr. Deficit.

It's always nice to see that some people do connect the dots, as this video from Robert Reich shows. Politics aside, this video makes a very strong case, in just 2 minutes and 15 seconds.

It should be particularly alarming to anyone with a conscience, that while the upper crust of Wall Street lives in a world of an internet bubble shameless luxury and record bonuses, it continues to make big jobs cuts. As we reported last week, some Too Big To Fail banks are thanking the taxpayers by issuing layoff notices. Today, we have further confirmation and it looks worse than before. Goldman Sachs is making the biggest cuts - 10%. Ouch! Better hurry that Facebook IPO or there'll be no gifts this year.

Now, on to the other matters concerning life. Fukushima continues to get uglier. First we get reports from the WSJ that hot spots of high radiation are now showing up 140 miles south of Fukushima, in Tokyo. No surprises here.

Last months report about an earless rabbit being born in Japan was all the rage. Now, we learn that in China, three more earless rabbits were born and the whole village has shown up. With radiation spiking across Asia, is it any surprise that this is occurring? Further, the impacts that we warned about months ago are finally showing up in the U.S. In Philadelphia, PA, we learn that since Iodine 131 was showing up in drinking water, the death rate among infants is up 48 percent(!). Ann Coulter said radiation is healthy and so people believed it. Now they are paying for it. How long before the populous realizes what has really occurred

Sweet dreams and good night. Don't let the Abercrombie & Fitch bedbugs bite.

1 comment:

  1. hi. even with todays price lnkd has 1000 p/e so its very funny because at that att would stillbe worth worth $18 trillion bucks! i think you hit the nail on the head when you said it is worth no more than $12. what a fooking scam these markets are. thanks agains for your hard work.