Wednesday, June 1, 2011

TGIW- To Ease, Or Not To Ease. That Is the Question; Housing Is Hosed; Greece On And Off; Portugal Ends Bond Auction Early; ISM 'Drops Like Big Rock'; There Is Nothing Advanced About Today's ADP; Fukushima; More

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Update 1: European bank stress tests delayed until further notice. Wrong time, maybe.

Update 2: "We are on the verge of a great, great depression." Courtesy of CNBS, which is even more bizzare. 

Update 3: Say goodbye to Tokyo - "We will be losing Tokyo to Fukushima radiation." - Ichiro Ozawa (Radio Interview)

Update 4: Massachusetts State Defense Forces (aka Militia) reactivated. In preparation of the DOW tumbling 5000 points today back to earth?

Update 5: 500,000 Bq/kg of radioactive Cesium found 75 Miles (120km) from Fukushima. Is that a lot?

Main Article
We have received several reader emails over the past 24 hours, many of which in essence were asking 'with so much bad economic news, why are the markets rallying?' Another savvy reader asked 'why didn't the Nasdaq drop on the WHO report about cellular phones being carcinogenic and the death of bumble bees?' Our first response to both is, "does it really matter?" The old investment adage that "the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent (or sane)" holds true yet again and is something every investor must understand fully. However, in this particular case, at this particular period in time, we have entered an entirely different paradigm, an uncharted economic phase in history. As we have beaten to death numerous times here, these "markets" are now based entirely on whether or not more Quantitative Easing is in the works. That's all. One only needs to look at companies like "home builder" Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) with P/E ratios closing in on 60x earnings to know something is in need of a serious correction. Looking at the SEC fillings of the CEO gives us a glimpse of what this sham company is all about - since 2005 the CEO's total compensation amounted to nearly $1 Billion. Can you say ATM for insiders?

Needless to say, housing is the pits and getting worse. One look at housing data from 1972 shows there were 2,356,000 housing starts that year, and yet in 2010 we had 586,000 starts. Yesterday's Case Shiller/S&P housing index shed even more light into this alarming trend now that home prices are at 2002 levels. How long before home prices recover? Don't ask. Real estate was an investment - 30 years ago. Still, that didn't stop "the markets" from gaining 128 points on the day - the MSM says markets recover on Greece bailout rumors. Really? Try rumors of QE3 and QE4 on all the bad news is what propped the markets up, again.

What's bad for Main Street is very good (and very profitable) for Wall Street as QE is the ATM of the bankers. And since there is no end in sight for this bad news mountain - you figure it out. More bad news for Main Street (jobs cuts, plummeting housing prices, etc., etc., etc.,) equals good news for Wall Street (bigger bonuses) so long as QE continues. But the savvy investors know gold and silver is where the protection from QE is.

The infamous PIIGS in Europe are already in the deadly grasp of the death spiral. Austerity is necessary in order to meet "hand out requirements" "bailout requirements," yet with sky high unemployment, the last thing these nations need in order to recover is more unemployment. Painting yourself in corner seems to be contagious. Remember Dr. Deficit's plan? Soon the results of the "Stress Tests." Should be good for a few laughs. The next domino to fall after Greece, Portugal, already can't go to the markets for money and today they were forced to cut it short in order to keep yields below the threshing floor. Still, we ain't buyin' it. Europe is a clay/iron mix - it wasn't meant to be. Bond "haircuts" will be given the standard army crew cut this year. Perhaps, we may even see a Cojack style cut after all.

Need more "shock and awe?" ISM manufacturing data out this morning shows QE failed TSHTF US economy imploding over paid Wall Street analysts don't have a clue. Like yesterday's morbid Chicago PMI, their expectations were off by miles - 53.6 versus expectations of 57.1. As CNBS says, analysts were "shocked" by the data. Just like they were shocked that the ADP payroll data was again, not even close to their expectations. This time, the data came in at 38k versus expectations of a comical 175k. Oh, and last months data was revised, downward. Again. Did we mention that the analysts all agreed, Fukushima is über bullish for the economy?

Speaking of Fukushima, the latest official news from Japan is everything is fine and dandy. Things are so good now that tourists are being invited over for fruit salad. An official named Yasuo Seki said of Fukushima, "visiting Fukushima and enjoying what the prefecture has to offer is one way to support the locals. Soon it will be a great season to taste Fukushima's famous fruits. It would be great if foreigners could come visit the area and show their support by helping revive the economy." Thanks, but no thanks. Somehow, that "economy" word keeps popping up.


  1. über... Ü! Now I really know you're impressive!

    I really can't see Tokyo being abandoned as there's nowhere else to go. (Just guessing.) They're just going to suppress the data until attrition handles it.

    Thanks again for such a great summary.

  2. @Pecos Bill- Thank you. That is the problem they face and thus their reaction to the problem.